Predictions Suggest Reform UK Could Win Most Seats On Isle Of Wight Council

Reform UK could emerge as the largest party on the Isle of Wight Council following next week’s local elections, according to two separate forecasts.

The predictions, from PollCheck and Britain Votes Now, come ahead of the vote on May 7.

Current make-up at County Hall includes 13 Conservatives, 11 councillors from the Alliance group, four non-aligned independents and four Liberal Democrats, alongside smaller numbers from other groups.

PollCheck’s model suggests Reform UK could win 26 wards, with major losses predicted for several established councillors.

It forecasts the Conservatives dropping to three seats, the Greens winning two, and both Labour and the Liberal Democrats losing all representation.

The model also suggests seven independents and one Vectis Party councillor could be elected.

However, PollCheck says its projections are based on national polling data, local election history and demographic modelling, rather than ward-level surveys, and warns results could vary significantly.

Meanwhile, Britain Votes Now predicts Reform UK winning 18 seats, alongside 12 independents, four Liberal Democrats, three Greens, one Conservative and one Labour councillor.

Its analysis also suggests some high-profile councillors could retain their seats, while others may lose out to independent candidates.

The forecasts come as Reform UK continues to perform strongly in national polling.

POLITICO’s poll of polls put the party on 25 per cent as of April 24, with the Green Party, Labour and Conservatives each on 17 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats on 12 per cent.

Both forecasting sites say their models are based on a combination of polling data, demographics and local political context.