YouGov Poll Projects Comfortable Reform UK Win In Both Isle Of Wight Seats

A new YouGov projection suggests Reform UK would win both Isle of Wight parliamentary constituencies if a general election were held tomorrow.

The pollster’s latest MRP model, based on responses from around 13,000 voters across the country, shows Reform leading in both Isle of Wight East and Isle of Wight West.

According to YouGov, Reform is projected to take 35% of the vote in Isle of Wight West and 34% in Isle of Wight East.

The company says “high levels of uncertainty and volatility” are now common in British politics — and that its September 2025 results “are no different in that regard.”

Projected Results

Isle of Wight East

• Reform UK: 34%

• Conservatives: 21%

• Green Party: 20%

• Liberal Democrats: 12%

• Labour: 11%

• Other: 2%

Isle of Wight West

• Reform UK: 35%

• Labour: 24%

• Conservatives: 17%

• Green Party: 11%

• Liberal Democrats: 11%

• Other: 3%

Local Reaction

Cllr Bill Nigh, Reform UK councillor for Lake North, said the poll “reflects what I’ve been hearing on the doorsteps.”

“The Isle of Wight is demanding change.

"People have had enough and they want Reform,” he said.

Phil Attfield, vice-chair of Isle of Wight Labour, said the figures “reflect public frustration with the status quo” but warned that MRP models “are not forecasts.”

“Reform’s rise is built on disillusionment, not a coherent plan for the Island or the country,” he added.

Cllr Vix Lowthion, Green Party candidate for Isle of Wight East in 2024 and chair of Newport and Carisbrooke Community Council, said the figures showed how fast politics was shifting.

“We’re just one per cent behind the Conservatives in the East,” she said.

“There’s much to play for before the next general election.”

Joe Robertson, Conservative MP for Isle of Wight East, questioned the reliability of the model.

“MRP polls have been proven inaccurate.

"They predicted a Labour win in East Wight at the last election and Labour came fourth.

“I’ll continue working in the best interests of local residents. The only poll that really matters is the one on election day.”