Warning Food Prices Could Rise As Global Fertiliser Costs Surge

Food prices in the UK could increase in the coming months, as the ongoing conflict involving Iran pushes up the cost of fertiliser and energy worldwide.

Industry experts say disruption in the Strait of Hormuz — a key global shipping route — has driven sharp increases in fertiliser prices, placing pressure on farmers and food producers at the start of the growing season.

Fertiliser is a vital part of modern agriculture, with estimates suggesting it plays a role in up to half of global food production.

However, because it relies heavily on natural gas for its production, rising energy costs are now feeding directly into higher prices.

The cost of urea, a key fertiliser ingredient, has more than doubled since the start of the year—from around $300 a tonne to nearly $700 by the end of March.

Farmers now face a difficult choice: pay significantly more to maintain crop yields, or reduce usage and risk producing less food.

Either option is expected to lead to higher prices for consumers.

The UK is particularly exposed to global price rises, as domestic fertiliser production has declined in recent years.

The country now imports a large proportion of what it needs, making it vulnerable to international supply issues.

Suppliers say some farmers who secured fertiliser earlier in the year have avoided the steepest increases—but others are already paying significantly more.

There are warnings this could lead to another spike in food inflation, similar to that seen following the war in Ukraine.

Farmers are also facing rising costs in other areas.

Beef producers say higher fertiliser prices are increasing the cost of maintaining pasture, while growers are dealing with soaring energy bills.

In parts of the UK where crops are grown in heated glasshouses, gas costs have risen sharply in recent weeks—adding further strain to producers who often agree prices with supermarkets months in advance.

Industry representatives say some growers may be forced to scale back production or operate at a loss if costs continue to rise.

There are also calls for greater support for the sector, with some urging the government to take action to help stabilise energy costs and protect domestic food production.

Experts warn that without intervention, the combined pressures on fertiliser, fuel and supply chains could begin to impact supermarket prices later this year.